Wildfire-Risk Models Are Struggling to Predict LA-Style Fires

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Among natural disasters, wildfires are the great unknown. Even the most-sophisticated scientific models fail to capture all the risk factors or properly account for the increasing impact of climate change.

It’s a major problem for homeowners, insurers and investors, as shown by this month’s Los Angeles blazes that partly or completely incinerated more than 14,000 structures, including several thousand homes, according to local authorities.

Related: LA Braces for Fire Risk From Bone-Dry Winds as Winter Rains Lag

While wildfire risks for the area were broadly known, what surprised almost everyone has been the ferocity of

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